The Black Swan - The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Winner of the Wirtschaftsbuchpreis Financial Times Deutschland getAbstract 2007
Verlag | Penguin Books UK |
Auflage | 2008 |
Seiten | 480 |
Format | 12,9 x 19,8 x 2,7 cm |
B-format | |
Gewicht | 354 g |
Artikeltyp | Englisches Buch |
ISBN-10 | 0141034599 |
EAN | 9780141034591 |
Bestell-Nr | 14103459EA |
Ein 'Black Swan' ist ein sehr unwahrscheinliches Ereignis mit drei Hauptcharakteristika: es ist nicht vorhersehbar, es hat massivste Auswirkungen, und es wird hinterher plötzlich als vorhersagbar und nicht überraschend dargestellt.
Klappentext:
The phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty
What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper?
This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them.
'Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide ... I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person' Will Self, Independent on Sunday
'He leaps like some superhero of the mind' Boyd Tonkin, Independent
Rezension:
A fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers by the unexpected Guardian