NATO, Climate Change, and International Security - A Risk Governance Approach

This book offers a prospective analysis of the anticipated security consequences of climate change in relation to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Using climate and security literature to complement recent foresight and scenario analysis developed by NATO, the author applies the International Risk Governance Council's (IRGC) Risk Governance Framework to identify the considerations and actions that could assist NATO in a context where climate and environmental factors more intensively shape security. Tyler Lippert explores how climate change has the potential to increase the need for humanitarian assistance and disaster response, to create tension over shared resources, to renew and enhance geo-political interest in the Arctic, and to deepen concern with respect to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Within this new political and environmental reality, NATO must consider how to adapt to meet new demands, prepare for new security challenges, as well as manage unfo reseen consequences.
Offering a corrective, this book identifies near-term actions for NATO to improve its risk governance posture, providing a basis upon which longer-range policy considerations can be developed. This analysis is only the opening salvo of what is likely to be a complicated process that spans many years, if not decades. However, in mapping the risk governance dimensions to the security and climate nexus from the perspective of NATO, Lippert provides a foundation for risk-based policy planning for NATO. The book will be of immense value to policy and decision makers: NATO leadership and its affiliated organizations as well as to academics across a broad span of subject areas, particularly environmental sociology, defense and foreign policy, and the political sciences.

Inhaltsverzeichnis:

Table of ContentsI.AbstractII.Chapter 1: IntroductionA.OverviewB.Research Aims and ObjectivesC.AbbreviationsD.Scope of the AnalysisIII.Chapter 2: Literature ReviewA.IntroductionB.Climate Change and Security ConsequencesC.Critical Aspects of Climate ChangeD.Empirical Models of Climate SecurityE.ConclusionsIV.Chapter 3: Taking Stock of the Situation: NATOA.IntroductionB.NATO's Big Picture-What Future? C.Historical development and transformation of NATOD.NATO, Climate, and the Environment1.NATO and Middle East/North Africa2.NATO and the Arctic3.Creation of NATO's Emerging Security Challenges DivisionE.NATO Foresight Efforts: The Future Security Environment1.NATO ACT Strategic Foresight Analysis2.NATO ACT-Framework for Future Alliance Operations3.Instability Situations - (Hazards) a)Access and Use of Global Commons Challengedb)Disruptive Impact of Migrationc)Large-Scale Disaster4.Review and Critique of Instability Situations5.To What Extent do the NATO ACT Instability Situations Repr esent NATO's Perspective? F.ConclusionsV.Chapter 4: Methodology & ContextA.IntroductionB.Why Risk Governance? NATO and Climate Security RiskC.The IRGC Risk Governance Framework1.Summary of Characteristics: NATO, Climate Security, and Risk Governance2.Previous Application of the IRGC Risk Governance FrameworkD.Risk Governance: Institutions & Context1.The Institutional Structures2.Climate Policies and Plans: NATO Militaries and Defense Ministries3.The Context of NATO Decision Making: Consensus and the Silence Procedure4.NATO in the context of a new environment5.The Potential for ConfoundednessE.ConclusionsVI.Chapter 5: A Risk Governance Case StudyA.IntroductionB.Phase 1: Pre-Assessment1.Risk (or, Problem) Framing2.Early Warning3.Screening4.Scientific Conventions5.NATO's ability to perform pre-assessmentC.Phase 2: Risk Appraisal1.Risk Assessmenta)Complexityb)Uncertaintyc)Ambiguity2.Concern Assessment3.NATO's ability to perform Risk AppraisalD.Phase 3: Tolerability and Acceptability J udgment1.Risk Characterization & Evaluation: Climate and Security for NATOa)Risk Characterizationb)Risk Evaluation2.NATO's ability to perform Tolerability and AcceptabilityE.Phase 4: Risk Management1.NATO's ability to perform Risk ManagementF.Risk Communication1.NATO's ability to perform Risk CommunicationG.ConclusionsVII.Chapter 6: Major FindingsA.IntroductionB.Findings: Climate Change and International Security: NATO's Risk GovernanceC.Recommendations: A Basis for Prospective Risk Management OptionsD.Discussion: Assessment of the IRGC FrameworkE.Closing RemarksVIII.Bibliography